As the 2025 NFL season rolls toward its halfway point, betting action is heating up just as fast as the competition on the field. With Week 7 kicking off — including another early London matchup — the experts at USA TODAY Sports have once again gathered to deliver their most confident predictions, spanning player props, anytime touchdowns, and team performances across Sunday’s slate.
After a mixed 2-3 showing in Week 6, the team is hungry for a bounce-back — and with several breakout performances, favorable matchups, and intriguing player returns, Week 7 promises plenty of opportunity for sharp bettors to cash in.
Let’s break down the top NFL Week 7 best bets, complete with expert insight, statistical backing, and odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook.
1. Giants QB Jaxson Dart UNDER 172.5 Passing Yards at Broncos (-115)
Pick by: Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer
The Denver Broncos may not be flashy on offense, but their defense has been quietly dominant, especially against the pass. Last week’s 13-11 victory over the Jets in London showcased their ferocious pass rush, holding New York to an unbelievable -10 passing yards — the worst mark in franchise history.
Facing that kind of pressure, Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart could be in for a long day. Despite a strong start to his career, Dart has been inconsistent when facing elite defensive fronts. Even in New York’s dominant win over Philadelphia last week, he failed to eclipse 200 passing yards.
Denver currently ranks first in the league in sacks and top three in quarterback hurries. With the Giants’ offensive line still struggling — outside of stalwart LT Andrew Thomas — Ostly believes the smartest play is to expect a conservative, run-heavy approach centered around rookie RB Cam Skattebo.
The Verdict: The Broncos’ defensive front is too much for a rookie QB behind a shaky O-line. Expect the Giants to grind out yards on the ground and keep Dart’s passing total well under 172.5 yards.
2. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott OVER 265.5 Passing Yards vs. Commanders (-111)
Pick by: Jacob Camenker, NFL writer
While one NFC East quarterback struggles, another looks poised to thrive. Dak Prescott has been one of the NFL’s most efficient passers through six weeks, averaging 269.5 yards per game while attempting a league-high 229 passes.
With the Cowboys defense faltering, allowing 30.7 points per game (second-most in the league), Prescott has been forced into high-volume passing scripts to keep Dallas competitive.
This week’s opponent, the Washington Commanders, presents an ideal matchup. Their defense ranks in the bottom five in passing yards allowed and has given up multiple 300-yard performances this season. Add in the expected return of CeeDee Lamb, and Prescott should have all his top weapons available for what could turn into a high-scoring shootout.
The Verdict: The Commanders’ secondary can’t stop top-tier passing attacks, and Prescott is in rhythm. Expect him to eclipse 265.5 passing yards comfortably — possibly by the third quarter.
3. Browns RB Quinshon Judkins OVER 90.5 Rushing Yards vs. Dolphins (-140)
Pick by: Jack McKessy, NFL writer
If there’s one constant this season, it’s that the Miami Dolphins’ defense can’t stop the run. Over the past four weeks, they’ve allowed some staggering numbers to opposing RB1s:
- James Cook – 108 yards
- Breece Hall – 81 yards
- Rico Dowdle – 206 yards
- Kimani Vidal – 124 yards
That trend doesn’t bode well as they prepare to face Cleveland’s rookie sensation Quinshon Judkins. The young back has already become the centerpiece of the Browns’ offense, recording 81+ rushing yards in three of his last five games.
Cleveland’s offensive identity is built on the run, especially with Deshaun Watson battling inconsistency and the Browns offensive line ranked among the best in run-block win rate.
The Verdict: Miami’s defensive front has been a turnstile against physical runners. With volume on his side and a favorable matchup, Judkins should blow past 90.5 yards and possibly flirt with another 100+ yard day.
4. Jets TE Mason Taylor OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards vs. Panthers (-110)
Pick by: Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer
After a disastrous Week 6 performance where the Jets finished with -10 passing yards, bettors might hesitate to touch New York’s passing game. But Brinkerhoff sees value in tight end Mason Taylor, who’s quickly becoming a key offensive weapon.
With star WR Garrett Wilson doubtful and the team’s receiver depth paper-thin, Taylor could emerge as the primary target for whoever starts under center. Carolina’s defense gives up an average of 74 receiving yards per game to tight ends, the second-most in the NFL.
Pro Football Focus data adds another layer of confidence: Taylor ranks fourth among tight ends in receiving yards from inline alignments, while Carolina’s linebackers and safeties rank 30th in coverage against tight ends in those same sets.
Taylor has already hit this over in two of his last three games, and with game script likely forcing the Jets to throw more often, 43.5 yards feels low.
The Verdict: Don’t overthink it. Taylor should get plenty of looks in the middle of the field and easily clear this line — and maybe even snag his first NFL touchdown.
5. Chiefs WR Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (+125) vs. Raiders
Pick by: Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor
The Kansas City Chiefs appear to be finding their rhythm again, and the return of WR Rashee Rice could be the missing piece that turns their offense from solid to spectacular.
After missing most of last season due to injury and suspension, Rice is expected to make his 2025 debut this week. Reports from practice have been glowing — head coach Andy Reid told reporters that Rice “looked sharp” and was “in great shape.”
Before his injury in 2023, Rice had quickly become Patrick Mahomes’ favorite wideout, putting up 288 yards and 2 TDs on 29 targets in just four games. Now, he returns to face a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most receptions to opposing wide receivers.
Given Mahomes’ tendency to feed his top target early and Rice’s big-play potential, this is one of the most appealing anytime touchdown bets of the week.
The Verdict: Mahomes + Rice = fireworks. Expect Rice to make an immediate impact and find the end zone in his return.
Bonus Betting Insight: Trends to Watch for Week 7
- Underdog Opportunity: Road underdogs have covered in 58% of games this season, indicating strong value for bettors fading public favorites.
- Early London Games: The last four London matchups have hit the under on total points, thanks to travel fatigue and sluggish offenses.
- Rookie Surge: First-year players like Brian Thomas Jr. and Rico Dowdle continue to outperform expectations, providing juicy value in prop markets.
Responsible Gambling Reminder
While betting can make the NFL experience more exciting, it also comes with risks. The experts stress the importance of wagering responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. Odds and outcomes change quickly, and no pick is ever guaranteed.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available through the National Council on Problem Gambling (1-800-GAMBLER) or equivalent hotlines by state. Betting is restricted to individuals 21 and older, and not all states allow online sports wagering.
Final Thoughts: Expert Picks for a Packed Sunday
From Dak Prescott’s aerial attack to Quinshon Judkins’ ground dominance, Week 7 offers a mix of high-upside props and sharp value plays that highlight where matchups truly matter.
The USA TODAY Sports panel remains confident in these selections, blending analytical data with insider football insight to provide bettors with the best possible edge. Whether you’re riding the Mahomes-Rice reunion, betting against a rookie QB under pressure, or trusting a breakout tight end to stay hot, there’s plenty of action waiting on Sunday’s slate.
As always, play smart, manage your bankroll, and enjoy the games — because in the NFL, every Sunday brings new surprises, new stars, and new chances to win.
